Does your team need an easy but effective tool for discussing the impacts about the future? Would you benefit from a template that guides an action-oriented conversation about emerging trends?

The Probability/Impact Matrix (PIM) is an incredibly versatile and accessible foresight tool. It provides the platform for rich dialogue about the future, and it’s a highly effective “pulse check” to understand how your team perceives the future. The mechanism of this tool is straight-forward: Assess the probability and impact of a trend in a given year and plot it on the matrix. Repeat with multiple trends and multiple time horizons. PIM can be used with a small or large team, with coworkers or senior leadership, and can even be used for self reflection on the future. Have an open discussion about the future with your team today!



This resource is a Mural template. If you do not already have a free or paid Mural account, you should do so before attempting to use this resource. Upon checkout, you will receive an email with a link to the template, where you can create a Mural canvas from the template.

The template contains everything you need to successfully conduct PIM. You will find the PIM matrix, the front and back of all 30 Creator Economy trend cards, and post-exercise questions for reflection. There are both facilitation notes and participant instructions, as well as video guides of Yvette Montero Salvatico and Frank Spencer facilitating the tool that can be played at the facilitator’s discretion.




This template leverages our Creator Economy Wicked Opportunity Trend Cards published in 2018.  Although these trends are still viable, you may wish to refresh the specific research referenced when using this resource with your stakeholders.

Copyright Information

The content and materials in this template have been designed to develop specific knowledge and skills in Natural Foresight®. A significant amount of time has been devoted to writing and testing these materials in order to ensure their effectiveness.

Kedge, LLC maintains full and exclusive rights to these materials and the Natural Foresight® Framework through all applicable intellectual capital laws. No redesign, editing, or reproduction (physical or digital) of these materials is permitted.

If you would like to customize or adapt Kedge, LLC materials for your organization, or to discuss a licensing agreement, please contact Kedge, LLC at info@kedgefutures.com.

Kedge, LLC maintains a staff with extensive capabilities to assist you in creating programs and materials that meet your needs. All changes, adaptations or licensing rights to these materials must be requested from and approved by Kedge, LLC in writing.