Scenario Development in the 21st Century

We have increasingly focused on the quantifiable world over the past 100 years as a means to growth and progress. Organizations have become obsessed with numbers and the warm, fuzzy feeling they give us when they neatly add up to demonstrate that the future looks bright. In reality, life has always been a mixture of what we might call “quantified and qualified metrics.” Today’s world is now forcing us to recognize the importance of qualitative measurements by virtue of its…

Don’t Confuse Forecasting with Foresight

In a world that is enamored with short-term actions, incremental innovation, and quantifying everything, it’s important to understand that “forecasting” and “foresight” are not the same thing. They may have the future in common, but that does not make them equals. Forecasting uses quantitative data and trends in an attempt to fill in gaps and extrapolate outcomes. However, data by its very nature is a snapshot of the past (just as trends are the present – you know about them…

Kill the Five-year Plan

The Current State: Good Intentions, Poor Results Having spent the majority of my career as a finance professional for large, multi-national firms, I know intimately the herculean (and often fruitless) task of strategic and financial planning.

Natural Foresight as a Panarchy

The adaptive systems within a panarchy are most commonly represented by a figure eight or an infinity symbol. This demonstrates how the various phases within the system alternate in a continual cycle rather than following a straight line that has a clear-cut beginning and end.

Foresight in the Garden of Good and Evil

If an extraterrestrial came to Earth and studied our viewing habits, they would probably be puzzled at this preoccupation that our world is definitely doomed, and the only question is how it will meet its end. Our seeming obsession with our demise has spread across all other areas of our lives, until we are surrounded by a pessimistic view of our world in general.

Let’s Get Technical – Natural Foresight® Framework

The Natural Foresight® Framework is presented in four technical facets: Discover, Explore, Map, and Create. Discover: We must look past our present-day models and ideas in order to recognize disruptors on the horizon of business and society.

Defining Strategic Foresight

Strategic Foresight is a decades-old discipline that allows us to create functional views of alternative futures and possibilities.

Why “Ridiculous” Maps of the Future are Useful

Developing and executing business strategy, products and innovative ideas in our current environment demands new approaches and mindsets. Linear methods that rely solely on the extrapolation of historical results are completely ineffective as technological advancements, economic uncertainty, and increased systematic risk become the new normal. To effectively drive understanding, performance, and execution of strategic initiatives, organizations must think and act in “simultaneous multiples” – pressure-testing their strategies in diverse operating environments.